Series · Leptokurtic
Detecting Crashes with Fat-Tail Statistics
We built fatcrash, a Rust+Python toolkit with 13 crash detection methods: LPPLS, DFA, EVT, Hill, Kappa, Hurst, GSADF, and more. Tested on 39 drawdowns across BT…
Federico Carrone
I am Federico Carrone, an entrepreneur at the intersection of technology, finance, and culture. Through Ergodic Group, I build and hold companies in distributed systems, cryptography, AI, gaming, and real assets. I also created LambdaClass, a software company focused on protocol engineering, systems programming, and formal verification.
This site is where I write about the systems that shape the future: cryptographic infrastructure, institutional design, and the culture that emerges from both. I focus on what compounds over time rather than what trends today.
Series · Leptokurtic
The Tail Hedge Debate: Spitznagel Is Right, AQR Is Answering the Wrong Question
We tested Spitznagel's tail hedging strategy and AQR's critique with 17 years of real SPY options data. AQR is correct about a strategy nobody runs. Spitznagel's actual strategy, leveraged deep OTM puts, wins on every metric. Weekly rebalancing pushes Sharpe to 2.0. Macro signals are useless for timing.
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Latest
Series · Leptokurtic
Nine Centuries of Exchange Rates: What 240 Countries and 900 Years of Data Reveal
We assembled forex-centuries, an open dataset of exchange rates from 1106 to 2026 covering 240 countries from 13 sources. Fat tails are universal. Pegged curren…
Article
Friction as Luxury: What We Lose When AI Gives Us What We Want
The scarcity that matters most in a post AGI world won't be compute or energy. It will be desire itself.
Article
Is Consciousness a Network Effect?
What if consciousness emerged in humans when external dialogue internalized? Could multi-agent AI be building the same precondition?
Article
China commoditizing the complement
If AI makes cognition cheap, portable, and good enough, services lose margin and geopolitical advantage shifts toward players that pair industrial scale with co…
Article
Building a SaaS with Elixir/Phoenix and React
Our stack and practices for building SaaS applications: Elixir on the backend, React on the frontend, Nix for everything else. No Docker. No Kubernetes.
Article
Unprepared for What’s Coming
Humanity is completely unprepared for what's coming. The pace of AI advancement might give people months to adapt, not decades.
Article
Type Systems: From Generics to Dependent Types
A practical guide through the landscape of type systems, from everyday generics to dependent types that prove correctness, with examples in Rust, Scala, and Idr…
Series · Concrete
The Concrete Programming Language: Systems Programming for Formal Reasoning
Concrete is a systems language proposal built for machine reasoning, aiming to combine low-level performance with formal verification, safety, and expressive de…
Article
The Death of the Inner Self
A draft thesis that individuality and modern consciousness are historical coordination technologies now being eroded by computation, capital, and automated feed…
Article
Notes on permanence, time, and ergodicity
A framework for building institutions that compound under pressure: treat time as information, preserve loop integrity, and focus on domains where repetition im…
Series · Ethereum
The new financial backend of the world
Ethereum is emerging as a neutral financial backend, lowering the cost of global financial services by encoding ownership and obligations in shared infrastructu…
Series · Ethereum
The missing institution of the Internet
The internet scaled information but not ownership institutions; Ethereum addresses this gap by embedding rights, records, and enforcement into programmable econ…
Talk
Ethereum’s Native Rollup Roadmap with Justin Drake
Discussion about Ethereum's native rollup roadmap
Article
Crypto doctrine
Crypto found product-market fit where trust is weakest: inflationary or censored economies, and internet-native communities that need programmable coordination …
Article
Transforming the Future with Zero-Knowledge Proofs, Fully Homomorphic Encryption and new Distributed Systems algorithms
Zero-knowledge proofs, FHE, and modern distributed-systems primitives can expand trust-minimized coordination by proving computation correctness without reveali…