variance

Not the keyword you're looking for? See all keywords.

Solving Futbol Like Chess Solving Futbol Like Chess
5 min read Keywords:  futbol, optimization, goodhart, variance, tactics, systems

European futbol optimized what is measurable and converged on a monoculture. On variance, the duel, deep blocks, and the danger of optimizing proxies.

Why the Calm Is Dangerous Why the Calm Is Dangerous
10 min read Keywords:  critical slowing down, early-warning signals, tipping points, Scheffer, Minsky, stability is destabilizing, variance, autocorrelation

A system heading for a tipping point gives off warning signs in unexpected places. The danger rarely arrives as drama and rising volatility. It hides in the calm. Ecologists learned to read it in lakes and climate, and the same signature shows up before some market crises. This is the measurable cousin of everything in this series.