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Markets as Reflexive Fixed Points Markets as Reflexive Fixed Points
32 min read Keywords:  markets, reflexivity, criticality, power laws, ergodicity, Soros, Mantegna, Stanley, Kelly

Markets are more than noisy aggregators of information: beliefs about prices help determine prices, which makes reflexivity a fixed-point problem with fat tails, non-ergodicity, and hysteresis.

Power Laws, Extremistan, and Non-Ergodicity Power Laws, Extremistan, and Non-Ergodicity
19 min read Keywords:  power laws, fat tails, Extremistan, non-ergodicity, Kelly, central limit theorem

Scale invariance becomes power laws; power laws move importance to extremes; extremes make averages unstable through time.