Federico Carrone
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The Edge of Chaos
Reflexivity by the Numbers
Everyone agrees markets react to themselves. The question is how much. A statistical tool built for earthquakes turns that vague idea into a single number: the fraction of market activity that is the market reacting to its own moves rather than to outside news. The number turns out to be close to the level where a chain reaction would run away.
Jun 2, 2025
· 10 min